Recently, the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS), an official source of data information for the government,
released a report which put Nigeria’s unemployment rate at 4.1% in the first quarter
of 2023 and 5.3% recorded in previous quarter. This signalled a massive drop
from 33% where the NBS had pegged the country’s unemployment rate. According to
the NBS in a report titled “Nigeria Labour Force Statistics Report Q4 2022 and
Q1 2023,” the latest unemployment report is a new methodology that presents an
in-depth analysis of the labour market.
The NBS has trotted out some arguments in defence of the new unemployment figures, stating that the initiative enhanced its methodology and collective labour market data through the Nigerian labour force survey in line with the international labour organisation guidelines. In other words, it is a new re-calibration or modification of criteria for measuring the labour market and labour force.
The global practice for nations and those championing labour issues is to domesticate and contextualize any given survey. For instance in 2014, the SMEs in Algeria were doing very well, providing more than 90% of the jobs, and entrepreneurs were well paid. That was the impression when one looked at their country’s data from statistical establishment, and commerce and industry actors. On the surface, it appeared their private sector was running fantastically. This official information did not necessarily reflect the total volume of data which was available for decision-makers. There were hidden variables or secret facilitations by government in support of the SMEs.
The conversation has to be taken from the domain of methodologies and international conventions to economic realism within Nigeria’s operating environment. A policymaker has the duty to assess all the variables including those not put on the table to arrive at informed decisions.
To the extent that any survey or report states its limitations, the criteria used are already a note of caution to whoever is going to use it. It is in this context that the NBS statistics should be looked at. It is a working instrument, data of value, and data of relevance subject to reevaluation before wholesale acceptance and usage. There is a further responsibility of detailed disaggregation and reassessment, using key performance indicators (KPIs) based on what is to be achieved in order to make a good policy.
For some years now, the NBS has been under pressure to choose from the various methodologies that are available to it. Such reviews are supposed to be done every five years but the last one the NBS did was in 2014. This new report therefore is a new method that has produced a different configuration stemming from various unemployment statistics.
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