UNDERSTANDING TREND OF RECENT COUPS IN AFRICA

Africa has witnessed several coups and attempted coups in recent years, raising concerns about the stability of governance, and socio-economic challenges across the continent. While each coup has its unique context and triggers, governance issues are some of the undeniable similarities that reflect the continent’s common struggles.

With the exception of some countries like Zimbabwe and Sudan, all the coups in Africa since 2017 (and there have been about 11 of them, and about 22 attempted coups since 2013), have taken place in French-speaking territories.

There are historical discontents and increasing disillusionments that brought the Francophone countries to this point. Some of the factors could be traced to the cold relationship between some of these countries and France, and the difficulty in denying the destructive effects of the actions of French politicians like Jacques Foccart on the African continent.

People from Francophone countries believe that French influence has been the reason for discernible threads of discontent which have bound the coups together. France has its military bases in its former colonies in Africa and compels Francophone citizens to be trained by its (French) officers; they also send their natural resources to France. For instance, Niger deposits about 80% of its reserves in France. Democratic chances are said to be precluded in these countries and their leaders have not performed to a level to justify any fidelity with the people.

In Mali, the ruling party was not just satisfied with winning elections, they went further to use the constitutional court to suppress the opposition. That was part of what led to the popular uprising in Mali. The French overreach was demonstrated by deploying Operation Barkhane in Mali to respond to what was supposed to be Islamic violence but in reality people saw it as an extension of imperial French design in the French sahelian territory. Rather than help, French deployment of Barkhane into Mali created a contagion of revulsion against perceptions of French overreach. Mali has broken off about 11 Accords with France including the Defence Accord. Burkina Faso has also broken off from the double taxation policy that favours France.

The power struggle between civilian governments and the military left Mali in a state of uncertainty, as seen in the 2021 coup, where the military seized power just months after a civilian transitional government was established.

It is reported that in Guinea, Alpha Conde who would have been an opposition politician used incumbency to set aside the constitution that brought him to power and gave himself life presidency, leaving the people with no option. As a result, the military overthrew him and the people supported the coup.

In Niger, there is a slightly unique situation in which a mix of Islamic violence and nation building issues including ethnicity matters constituted themselves into the reasons why the military struck. But the Niger junta has proposed a 3-year transition period which could be described as a negotiating position or bargaining point. It is now left for ECOWAS leaders to find ways of taking advantage of this window to negotiate a shorter time for transition.

It was alleged that President Paul Biya did not campaign in the last election in Cameroun and he was announced the winner. He resorted to such indignity partly because of the cult that has been created around them.

In DR Congo, Mobutu Sese Seko was not preparing for any succession or future leaders until Laurent Kabila came to power in a country that was disgruntled. Congo could be said to be in transition, perhaps the only country in the world that has had one president and four vice presidents. It was said to be an opportunity for them to change so that there could be some democracy. Sadly, this has remained a distant hope.

Younger generations, frustrated by unemployment, corruption, and lack of opportunities, took to the streets to demand change. This was evident in the Sudanese protests against Omar al-Bashir and the Zimbabwean protests against Robert Mugabe. Sudan’s economic crisis and the alleged corruption under Omar al-Bashir’s regime, for example, were central issues leading to the 2019 coup.

What is happening in French-speaking West Africa could be described as the ‘Francophone Spring,’ as evidenced in the military interventions in Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea Conakry, Chad, Niger and Gabon. Except Gabon, what is happening in these other countries could at best be described as the ideological realignments of their economic, political, and social values. The coup d’etat in Gabon is the 5^th in Africa after the overthrow in Niger, and represents the 8^th since 2020 in West and Central Africa.

France had a revolution in the 1700s when they abolished the monarchy, and pulled down the feudal system leading to a dramatic change in the political landscape. So, most of the coups happening predominantly in former French colonies may not be a surprise to them.

In the 90s when the wave of democracy swept across Africa, one thought that there was going to be hope. There were constitutional conferences in an attempt to deepen democracy. The late Prof. Claude Ake delivered a lecture in one of the Guardian Annual Lecture series titled “Is Africa Democratising?” Regrettably, about 30 years down the line, tangible benefits of democracy are yet to be felt on the African continent.

There seems to be no appreciable efforts to suggest that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) have done anything about the ongoing economic and political coups that are being imposed on the 14 former French colonies for decades.

In Africa, democracy has become more apparent than real. Many African leaders have taken periodic elections as sign of democracy without knowing that democracy encompasses good governance which empowers institutions, among other machinery of government.

Government is a social contract between the leaders and the governed. The power entrusted on leaders is for them to use it for the good of the people. If people revolt, it means the democratically elected government is not doing what it is supposed to do. The democratic space has been so shrunk that the people cannot rise up to defend democracy the way they should. As a result, the military use the instrument of coercion to take over power.

Youth-led protests, economic woes, regional and international scrutiny, and democratic backsliding are some of the recurring themes leading to the overthrow of long-standing leaders. Understanding these commonalities is essential for addressing the root causes of coups and finding solutions to prevent future political instability. Ultimately, Africa’s path to stability and progress lies in fostering transparent governance, addressing economic disparities, and ensuring that the voices of its citizens, especially the youth, are heard and heeded in shaping the continent’s future.

What is happening in Francophone countries is a very significant movement. It will not be out of place if France reconsiders its position very seriously in terms of its foreign policies in Africa. With every crisis, new opportunities arise. What this presents to Africa now is an opportunity to begin to renegotiate its trade and economic policies with France.

Liberal democracy is retrogressing in Africa even though things appear to be working in countries like Botswana and Namibia. In Mozambique, Joaquim Chissano left office a free man and with a good name. In Botswana, the former President, Ketumile Joni Masire, at one point, resigned his job in the middle of his term because he felt it was better for the younger ones to take over power and move democracy forward. People clamoured for him to come back but he was satisfied with one term. He wanted democracy to take its course.

However, with the current state of affairs, even if the UN organizes election here in Africa, it will fail because of state capture. It is difficult for new entrants to break in. This basically is bringing the idea of democracy into disrepute.

The solution is not in reshuffling the military by leaders of countries like Cameroun, Uganda and Rwanda. In fact, this could actually precipitate a coup. Leaders should begin to transit themselves out of power and allow democracy and development to flourish.

Development is actually what sustains democracy even though there has been the argument over the years that the practice of democracy will bring about development. With the crisis in some of the African countries, it is clear that development sustains democracy. Africa needs to fashion out a democratic system of government that is in tune with local peculiarities.

There should be a transcendental progression towards development so that in the next couple of years, the continent will see the consolidation and sustenance of democracy that can fit into the structural dynamics of African countries.

Moses Amadi

CIVILIAN COUPS: THREAT TO DEMOCRACY

Coups have historically been associated with military takeovers but the emergence of civilian coups presents a complex challenge to democracy in Africa.

There is so much focus on military coups and not on unconstitutional change in government in Africa. Unconstitutional change in government is more than just military coups.

Civilian coups have often been associated with democratic backsliding and attempts to change constitutional limits on presidential terms. Leaders seeking to extend their rule have faced opposition from citizens and in some cases, the military.

Civilian coups are happening in many countries in Africa including Zimbabwe, Guinea Conakry and Gabon. In Burkina Faso, protests erupted when Blaise Compaoré attempted to change the constitution to remain in power. During the last election in Gabon, Ali Bongo closed the country’s borders, shut down the internet, restricted international observers amidst strong allegations from the opposition, imposed night curfew after voting had taken place, among other undemocratic measures.

A civilian coup abducts an entire country; a military coup abducts one person who is capable of abducting the entire country. Both are abductions. Sometimes, coup leaders metamorphose into sit-tight leaders and the whole euphoria goes up again in a bubble.

Merely equating democracy to periodic elections would not appear to be sufficient; there are also governance issues. African leaders have utilized provisions from the existing constitutions or even changed the constitutions to get extended term limits.

 Part of the crisis of elective governance in Africa is the crisis of interminable presidency. Sit-tight leaders have refused to leave, leading to the overthrow of long-standing leaders. In countries like Sudan (2019), Zimbabwe (2017), and Burkina Faso (2014), citizens grew weary of leaders who had held power for decades.

People are finding that they have no option for turning over governments whose contingent legitimacies have expired. The legitimacy from elections is time-specific and it needs to be continually renewed. But governments make it impossible for people to exercise that option to renew that legitimacy properly, making democratic choice to become strangulated.

Civilian coups pose a significant threat to the democratic progress made on the continent in recent decades. The coups involve non-military actors, often individuals or groups from within the government or political elite, using extra-constitutional means to seize power or manipulate the political process. Such coups entail the manipulation of democratic institutions, electoral processes, or the constitution to perpetuate power.

A few years ago, some western powers intervened in Cote d’Ivoire to save democracy, and Alassane Ouattara was sworn in as the president. Ouattara entrenched himself in government by changing the constitution to enable him go for a third term in office. We now see some other leaders entrenching their children and cronies.

President Paul Kagame came to power in 2000 in Rwanda after fighting his way into government. To have a stronghold in power, he was accused of tweaking the constitution in his favour.

In 2013, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi took over power in Egypt by ousting President Mohammed Morsi who himself was democratically elected. The rules of the AU under the African Charter on democracy, elections and governance state that those who plot coups should not use the opportunity of incumbency from a coup to legalise themselves in office. General el-Sisi went on to organize an election in which he was the only credible candidate. Available statistics reveal that he allocated himself about 95% of the votes in that election. The AU did not just recognize him, they went on to make him the chairperson of the organisation.

In 2020, people died when Alpha Conde tried to make himself life president in Guinea Conakry. ECOWAS and AU recognized his regime.

In Chad the son of former President, Idriss Deby, is Mahamat Deby a General himself, who took over power following the death of his father in 2021. Former chairperson of the AU, Moussa Faki Mahamat who used to be General Deby’s foreign minister created an exception for Idriss Deby’s son in the AU’s rules governing unconstitutional changes in government, making what happened in Chad legitimate and lawful.

ECOWAS and the AU should do much more than what they are doing currently. The fact that AU could not help its former chairperson Jean Ping in Gabon to maintain a quality of balance in the election in 2016, just advertises the extent of AU’s weakness. AU has remained silent on civilian coups (when elections are manifestly and rampantly rigged and brought into disrepute) but condemns only military coups.

ECOWAS has protocols on good governance and development which spell out how member countries are supposed to practise democracy. The AU has the African Peer Review Mechanism and other instruments put in place to assess governance and development. There is also NEPAD.  But the major factor against successful implementation of these protocols is that most of African leaders have the same characteristics of ‘sit-tightism.’ They are guilty of usurping constitutional government indirectly through flawed elections. They cannot be the judge in their own case. They remain in power through kangaroo referendums.

Civilian coups should be treated with just the same degree of vehemence that military coups are treated. That way, we know we are fighting the same virus.

The consequences of civilian coups can be dire for the affected country. Democracy is undermined, and this could lead to authoritarianism. There is political instability, which can deter foreign investment, and hinder economic development. Human rights are abused including suppression of dissent and crackdowns on civil society organizations. The destabilizing effect of civilian coups may lead to refugee crises, and cross-border conflicts.

Addressing the challenge of civilian coups in Africa requires a multi-faceted approach. Understanding the underlying consequences of the coups is essential for devising effective strategies to prevent and address them. By strengthening democratic institutions, promoting good governance, and addressing socio-economic challenges, African nations can work towards a more stable and democratic future. International cooperation and support for these efforts will also play a vital role in mitigating the threat of civilian coups in Africa.

Moses Amadi

GABON COUP NOT A CONTAGION

 

 

One may be a bit careful about the widespread notion of the contagion theory or thesis with regard to the spate of coups in French-speaking West African countries. Gabon presents a unique narrative, context and trigger that should preclude the popular narrative of a coup contagion. In other words, the coup in Gabon took a different pattern.

It is true that jubilation filled the streets of Gabon on hearing the cancellation of the election that led to the re-election of President Ali Bongo for his third term, having served the country for nearly 13 years. There was the footage of the ousted president calling on his friends to make some noise. That means he was obviously not aware of what was going on around him. He lived outside of reality believing that people should go out and fight for him.

People have got to take notice that the contagion to the extent that anything of the sort exists is affecting mostly other French-speaking territories. Gabon, an oil-rich central African country, is in a different league. What happened in this country was quite substantially different from what happened in other French West African territories where there seems to be a break or an attempt at a break with the legacies of French colonialism. Gabon presents a case of a consolidation of French interest rather than fighting against French interest.

Gabon, for its population, is quite a wealthy country. Libreville is one of the most expensive cities in the world, and Gabon is in the heart of the Congo Basin, with abundance of nature. But the Bongos have turned one of the most blessed and beautiful countries on earth into their private estate and strangulated the entire place. The Bongo family belongs to the school of thought that believes in Francafrique, a system or philosophy that gives France the leeway to pillage and abuse the former colonies unchecked.

Coups should be seen in line with the internal contradictions in the countries where they occur. The coup leaders in Gabon who described themselves as the Committee of Transition and the Restoration of Institutions had the cousin of the ousted president as their transition military leader. He issued a decree reinstating the constitutional court, which makes it a possibility that this court can ratify the idea that President Omar Bongo was reelected, and he could return to power. That’s potentially quite possible. We have to take our time before reaching conclusions on what happened in Gabon. In any case, the coupists and the people of Gabon who jubilated did not condemn France.

It has to be said that there was no democracy in Gabon, and so, the idea that what happened in that country was the overthrow of democracy may not hold much water. President Omar Bongo ruled from 1967 until he died in 2009. With his enormous powers, he controlled all the machinery of government including appointing the Prime Minister, dissolving the legislature, among others.

The first coup in Gabon took place in 1964 against the independence President, Leon M’ba, and it lasted for three days, and on the third day, the French reinstated President M’ba. They discovered shortly after that that he was suffering from terminal cancer. They started looking for who would replace him and settled on Omar Bongo who became Vice President in November 1966 at the age of 30. When President M’ba died in 1967, Omar Bongo became president and ruled until 2009.

Upon Omar Bongo’s death, the Speaker was supposed to take over power but that did not happen. Instead, the late president’s son, Ali Bongo, took over the reins of government. He did the first 7 years and went off for reelection in 2016 against his brother-in-law, Jean Ping who used to be the Chairperson of the Commission of the African Union. It was believed that in that election, President Ali Bongo lost in 6 of the 9 regions or provinces of Gabon. Statistics show that he won by 5,594 votes, and pretty much all of that, came from one region in Haut-Ogooue where the Bongos also come from. The turnout in Haut-Ogooue in that election was 99%. Out of this, 95.46% of the votes were said to be allocated to Ali Bongo. When the electoral commissioner announced the result in August 2016, there was mounting unrest, people were killed, the National Assembly was burnt, among other crises.

The African Union (AU) got involved in trying to deescalate the violence. Heads of State who had worked with Jean Ping persuaded him to go to the constitutional court which was headed by a mistress of late President Omar Bongo. The court ruled at midnight on the 23^rd of September 2016 (amidst speculations that there was nobody in the court), affirming Ali Bongo as the winner of the election.

Moses Amadi

BRICS ALLIANCE: ASSESSING NIGERIA’S CHANCES

Recently, leaders of the five BRICS nations invited other six countries to join the bloc, namely, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirate. These countries could become members by next year, creating a bloc of desperate nations spanning a range of geography and economic development. These new members represent BRICS first phase of its expansion process.

The make-up of BRICS (except perhaps South Africa) and the new nations that have been admitted have so many things in common. Some of them have been browbeaten into falling in line both economically and in security.

Emerging economies and developing countries are increasingly becoming vulnerable and that leaves them in search of beneficial alliances. Nigeria, realizing that the cornerstone of stability lies in multilateral landscape, is evaluating and studying the variables with a view to working closely with BRICS members. This is intended to foster partnerships that sustain growth in line with the theme for the 2023 BRICS Summit, “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism.”

There are ongoing discussions within the economic advisory council, the National Assembly, and the Executive Council to determine Nigeria’s position about BRICS membership.

The Berlin Conference partitioned Africa over 100 years ago and pitched Nigeria towards the west. For decades, Nigeria has partnered with the west. It is noteworthy to mention that the world has shifted from bipolarity which lasted between 1945 and 1989 with the collapse of the Soviet Union, to a unipolar system dominated by the west.

What we now see with the emergence of BRICS is a situation where the world is moving into a multi-polar system which gives countries the benefit of having alternatives rather than suffering sanctions and being victims of western powers. To a large extent, IMF and World Bank conditionalities caused Nigeria’s economy to plummet southwards right from the military era.

De-dollarisation will not happen overnight. That is part of the reasons why BRICS nations have mandated their finance ministers to work on it away from prying eyes. The dollar is no longer backed by gold, and as the acceptable currency in many parts of the world, it continues to enrich the United States at the expense of other countries.

There is the perception that membership of BRICS is by invitation even though Nigeria formally applied to join the alliance in 2015 in the wake of the African Development Bank (AfDB) revelation that the trade between BRICS and Africa rose to about $340b in 2012. Nigeria stands to lose nothing if it aligns with the new world order. The country will have better negotiating and trading terms and better partners.

The good thing about BRICS is that it is almost self-sufficient; members can trade among themselves without really looking elsewhere.

For Nigeria to become a member of BRICS, lobbying South Africa may not be helpful because it serves South Africa’s best interest for us not to be in it right now so that they can take the lead in Africa. It serves Nigeria’s purpose to talk to some of the pioneer members of the alliance especially China and Russia that are open to admitting more members.

In BRICS, Nigeria can withstand the bullying from the west, but outside the alliance, the country stands no chance. Available statistics show that nearly 40% of the world’s population is already in BRICS. In terms of recovery, about 1/3 of the world’s economy or GDP is within the BRICS nations. If Nigeria takes away its resources from the west and joins the BRICS, there is the likelihood that such independence will cause the west to seek Nigeria more than Nigeria will need them.

Nigeria needs to be a voice in the room and stop negotiating from outside. That way, it will have better negotiating power to trade globally. The BRICS as a group is a very strong economic bloc right now and they have better negotiating power than Nigeria that is just standing alone especially in the midst of a fractured ECOWAS. The sub-regional body is not speaking with one voice at the moment because of governance issues in some member states.

There is a narrative that the BRICS are trying to change the dominance of the western power in global economy configuration. It is important Nigeria belongs to the bloc especially with the moribund nature of the non-alignment movement as the case may be.

BRICS is a variation of the concert of medium powers (countries that had regional influence) proposed by the former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prof. Bolaji Akinyemi, during the military regime. If Nigeria had embraced and pursued that policy, the nation would have been determining the fate of South Africa, and not vice versa. In BRICS, South Africa has got two superpowers on its side and intends to use that to perhaps checkmate Nigeria.

If Nigeria is not invited to join BRICS eventually, it provides the country with an opportunity to look in other directions. There are more countries outside BRICS now than there are in BRICS such as Chile, Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, among others. Nigeria could approach these important countries and bring them into an organization that is not going to be against the west or east. This is an opportunity for a clever application of a new concert of medium powers.

There is also the option of bringing together countries like Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey which were popularly referred to as the ‘MINT’ nations. Some of these countries could be willing to revive this bloc because they may also feel that they have been snubbed by the BRICS.

Moses Amadi

REVIEWING NIGERIA’S FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY: BY MOSES AMADI

Foreign policy is essentially the extension of a country’s domestic policy externally. Nigeria has proved to be a worthy ally within her sphere of interest and influence in its external relations, be it on the African continent or at the global stage. At the core of understanding the international environment, Nigeria has had to engage in many bilateral and multilateral relations in the course of pursuing its foreign policy.

Since independence, Nigeria’s foreign policy has been hinged on three concentric circles namely, peaceful coexistence with its immediate neighbours (West African sub-region), Africa and the rest of the world. In Africa, Nigeria focused on the entire southern African continent at one point, as such effort was critical to the independence of Angola, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe. When Chief Olusegun Obasanjo was the Head of State, Nigerian workers and students paid money and made other contributions to support the liberation struggle. That gave rise to the Southern Africa Relief Fund. Nigeria also offered scholarships and accommodation to southern Africans who had to study in Nigeria.

The 1980s saw Nigeria pushing its foreign policy with a diplomatic edge hinged on economic commitment, readjustment and structure, including what Prof. Bolaji Akinyemi referred to as a “Concert of Medium Powers” which was distinct from the big powers. This paved way for the shifts and triggers of some of the current policies that we are witnessing.

Over the years, the country has worked around this, helping to place itself on the global map with more recognition and respect for its roles and contribution towards global peace and development. Nigeria contributed significantly towards peacekeeping operations by funding ECOMOG and supplying troops while also playing a major role in dismantling Apartheid in South Africa.

Some scholars would argue that foreign policy is not launched on the basis of expected benefits. The counter argument to that is, why expend so much resources in terms men and materials, without the accruing benefits? Africa as the centrepiece of Nigeria’s foreign policy no longer suffices.

Safeguarding Nigeria’s interest and maximizing the gains of its relationship with the outside world, as defined by the 1961 Vienna Convention, are growing issues of concern today. Those issues are now the contradictory nature in Nigeria’s foreign policies tipped in diverse rules of engagement and equal strategies for reciprocities.

Nigeria needs to have another look at its foreign policy which was last reviewed in 1986 at the Kuru Conference. This has become necessary to protect its national interest in the changing global community. We have to, not only project the country but also defend it.

In attaining Nigeria’s foreign policy objectives, both the domestic and international fronts will be taken into consideration. There is a nexus between domestic and external. If the strength of our foreign policy must depend on the domestic environment, then we should recognize that the conduct of our domestic policies is as important as what we want the outside world to believe. It is imperative that we review not only our foreign policy but the totality of our system politically, socially and economically. To be regarded as Africa’s authentic voice, there has to be consistency, coherence, and relevance in what we say and do. Our democracy must be measured as one that is inclusive, accountable, and takes the needs of the most vulnerable in our society, among others.

On the flip side, some experts have argued that external factors can equally play a role in advancing domestic interest. Where a country is not doing what is expected to do, the external environment can influence that country to do the right thing. Some world bodies act as a check on human right abuses and other forms of bad governance. For instance, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in Geneva protects citizens against human right abuse by various governments.

Nigeria should create and reinforce favourable international images and cooperation. Recently, the Foreign Affairs Sub-Committee of the National Assembly was engaged in conversations to review Nigeria’s foreign policy to reflect the changing dynamics globally. This should be done while putting into consideration current trends in international relations and diplomacy such as climate change, globalization, human rights, democracy, terrorism, racism, LGBT, non-alignment and reciprocity principles, and the unfavourable conditionality attached to the granting of visa to Nigerians, among others. Besides, it is said that neighbouring countries benefit more from the ‘big brother’ role of Nigeria. Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, lends his voice, “Our nation’s foreign policy should define the terms under which we engage the rest of the world to address the different manifestations of our shared challenges so that we can together survive this age…” 

This time, content of Nigeria’s foreign policy has to be comprehensive in character, style, delivery capability and capacity. But comprehensiveness in foreign policymaking may not be realistic because the issues involved are indeterminable and unlimited in content and scope. Issues are evolving on a daily basis such as the recent change of government and other unfolding scenarios in Afghanistan. One can only review to the extent of responding to changing challenges as one may not always have the conceptual clarification of what to pursue and the strategy to adopt.

Nigeria’s foreign policy review exercise should involve stakeholders, not just the foreign policy division but also the three arms of government, the intelligentsia, civil society and more fundamentally, the Nigerian people in whose names both the government within and its agents abroad speak on behalf of. 

TOWARDS STRATEGIC DIPLOMATIC PARTNERSHIP WITH CHINA: BY MOSES AMADI

Over the past 50 years, Nigeria and China have enjoyed mutual respect, trust and support in

various fields which have yielded good results. Both countries have a long history of friendly

relations and cooperation which are an integral part of what is popularly known as China-Africa

cooperation and South-South cooperation.

The substance of Nigeria-China relations has grown in leaps and bounds over the years. Bilateral

relations between the African and Asia giants have metamorphosed from humble beginnings to

more robust frontiers of international cooperation today. Besides being the single largest trading

partner to Nigeria, the relationship between the countries has gone beyond Nigeria being just a

provider of raw materials to China. Development partnerships are expanding into ICT, modern

agro-businesses, security, banking, satellite and digital development, health, among others. A

number of institutions and programmes have been established in both countries to promote

achievements in these sectors. In September 2018, Nigeria signed about $320m loan with China

to heavily boost the development of telecommunication infrastructure in Nigeria.

In 2019, the bilateral trade between Nigeria and China reached $19.27b. China provided the

financing of series of projects in Nigeria including the Abuja-Kaduna railway, Port Harcourt

Airport terminals, Lekki Free Trade Zone, Zungeri Hydro-Power Dam, University of

Transportation, Daura, anong others. In exchange, Nigeria often hired Chinese firms to oversee

its development projects such as the Mambila Hydro-Electric Power Station.

Players have a great deal of flexibility when conducting diplomatic relations with their allies.

Mike Simpson.

Both countries have certain similarities including multiple ethnic groups that are practising

multiple religions. Another unique political fact is that both countries celebrate their national day

on the 1 st of October. In reputation, Nigeria is the most populous country and largest economy in

Africa while China is Nigeria’s counterpart in Asia in this regard.

China is considered one of Nigeria’s most important trading and export partners. China is one of

the world’s largest importers of Nigeria’s crude oil and Nigeria is benefitting from infrastructural

development and a great deal of financing being offered by China especially in rail development

as well the procurement of military hardware to counter insurgency in parts of the country.

The reason for having diplomatic relations is not to confer a compliment, but to secure a

convenience. Winston Churchill

Strategic relationships between the two countries are guided by historical conditions and factors.

This is underpinned by economic interests, political and diplomatic security, and other priorities.

The historical angle relates to the Guangdong Conference, which was about the first time

Chinese communist leaders were exposed to African leaders. Following those meetings, the then

prime minister of China visited 10 African countries between 1963 and 1964. That led to the

solidification of political and diplomatic relations which were consolidated by the gesture made

by 26 African countries around 1971 to enable China to be admitted into the UN.

It was on the 10 th of February 1971 that Nigeria established an embassy in China, and that was

the beginning of that relationship characterized by mutual strategic cooperation, and guided by

the Ambassador Bill that looked at ‘Symbiotic Relationship.’

However, in 1989, after the Tiananmen Square incident, China was virtually isolated from the

rest of the world. It was African countries that actually opened the gate for China to re-engage

with the world by inviting China’s foreign minister to visit some African countries, African

foreign ministers, and Heads of State actually visited China in 1989. Since then, China decided

to establish a strategic partnership with Africa. Each year since then, China tries to ensure that

every Chinese foreign minister’s first visit outside China to any continent is Africa. That has

been underpinned by the development of frameworks like the Forum on China-Africa

Cooperation (FOCAC) in 2000 which led to the adoption of specific engagement strategies by

China.

Recently however, Nigeria-China relations have come under criticism, with regard to how

mutually beneficial the underlining principals and core values of diplomatic relations have been.

Nigeria is yet to fully tap from the Sino-Nigeria trade relations in critical areas such as trade,

knowledge transfer, building of industries, SME development and job creation. Nigeria exports

products like cassava, ginger, cashew, hides and skin, and even toothpicks to China. But we have

more China’s toothpicks in circulation in Nigeria than Nigerian toothpicks in China. China will

be a good market for Nigerian textile. But Nigeria’s potential in textile and hides and skin is yet

to be fully tapped to gain comparative advantage in exports with China.

This has resulted in series of trade imbalances with Nigeria importing about 10 times more than

its exports to China in spite of China’s population of over one billion to Nigeria’s 200 million.

Chairman Mao recognized that a huge population without effective demand is like a hip of sand.

It is not enough to have a huge population. It is important to create genuine demand in this huge

population. And China’s structural reform has not only met the supply side but also the demand

side, knowing full well that a population in itself does not constitute a market except there is

effective demand. So, China began from the very first time of its market reforms to appreciate

the fact that demand and improving the citizen are very central to making China attractive. The

relative labour cost was the foundation of China’s modernization; cheap labour attracted foreign

investment.

This makes Nigeria’s economy to become over-reliant on cheap foreign imports to sustain itself,

costing it thousands of jobs in the textile, manufacturing sectors, among others.

There are instances where Nigerians staying in China tried in vain to register their businesses.

There are markets where an African can’t locate a shop in China. In 2009, Africans took to the

streets in China because of the attacks against them.

The underpinning words are inconsistency and lack of focus, and those have been the problem

affecting our planning, implementation and vision. We have so many policies for engagement

with partners who are sometimes bewildered for what purposes they were devised or developed,

and for how long they have been pursued by successive governments.

After the 2015 FOCAC in Johannesburg, the Chinese president outlined 10 cooperation plans

and provided $60b funding support. Nigeria couldn’t identify its areas of interest to partake in

the fund which was to be disbursed on first come, first served basis. But countries like Rwanda,

Kenya and Ethiopia outlined areas of cooperation, and funding was released.

When the belt and road initiative (a massive framework of connectivity between countries) was

outlined by President Xi Jinping, Nigeria didn’t take advantage of such international public good

to address its infrastructure deficit. The initiative was a broad strategy of international

engagement that featured mutual consultation, mutual contribution and shared benefits.

The Asian investment and infrastructure development bank was founded solely for the purpose

of filling infrastructure gap in Africa and developing countries. Over 100 countries including

some European countries expressed interest in the bank, which is reported to be the most

capitalized bank after the World Bank. Since about ten years since that bank was founded,

Nigeria is yet to access resources in the bank. Apart from the liquidity provided by this bank, the

institution is said to be the new international financial architecture. It seems Nigeria is not yet

strategically positioned to engage China in different aspects of national development.

The McKinsey Group projected that by 2030, Nigeria will be the 20 th largest economy in the

world given all the ideal circumstances. To ramp up strategically with China and achieve an

inroad into its economy, we must improve on governance and strengthen our capacity for

planning and implementation. We need to create clusters around energy, agriculture,

infrastructure, transportation, water resources, among others. The aggregate utilization of all

these clusters will make Nigeria a large economy in the world from where investments especially

from China can come into the country.

The MoU signed by President Muhammadu Buhari and President Xi Jinping in April 2016 is

good to be the platform on which Nigeria’s diplomatic, political, economic, security and trading

relationships should be premised upon. That document provides specific leverages which Nigeria

can take advantage of in terms of expanding its opportunities in China.

We must find our niche in China. Nigeria has to explore its light crude oil. China has virtually an

insatiable appetite for it and uses it for industrial purposes. In the solid minerals component of

our export, there is a lot that China requires for its development; iron, manganese, bauxite,

aluminum, among others. We are not just going to dig out these raw materials and send to China

but we should insist on value addition before exporting.

Chinese requirement for maize from the US alone amounts to tens of millions of tons to provide

feed for livestock and also for human consumption. Nigeria can meet some of the requirements.

We should have access to documents that articulate what the Chinese economic outlook is. It is

hoped that the collaborative project between the National Institute for Policy and Strategic

Studies (NIPSS) and Chinese ministry of foreign affairs will address Chinese concessionary

loans and grants, Chinese investments, trade imbalance, the focus of Chinese investment in

infrastructure, among others. Equally heartwarming is the recent agreement signed by the

ministry of foreign affairs and China. The document led to the setting up of an intergovernmental

committee on diplomatic relations. The primary aim of that committee is to streamline all

agreements with China to create a platform whereby every agreement with China will be looked

at by the relevant department, ministries and agencies that will make inputs into the

implementation of specific clauses, articles and provisions in all agreements.

We have to back up our agreements with funding which will be followed up by a monitoring

component. There must be an analysis of who implements what within the content of the

agreement. In this regard for instance, the CBN in 2011 reached out to China to establish a

framework for currency swap to reduce our dependency on US dollar and other western index

foreign currencies, and to admit the RND, the Chinese currency, as a currency of reserve deposit

by the CBN. Also, in 2018, the CBN held large sums of RND in reserve. Between 2011 and

2018, the swap exchange between CBN and the People’s Bank of China amounted to about

N7.2trn for development projects.

True relations never break and relations which break were never true. Abhishek Shukla.

The trade imbalance in favour of China can be mitigated if we decisively proritise our economic

relationship in terms of increasing the manufacturing capacity, value

JOE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION: LESSONS AND EXPECTATIONS: BY MOSES AMADI

Joe Biden was sworn in on January 20, 2021, as the 46^th President of the United States of America (USA). It was a spectacular event, one that many felt would be subverted, but it did take place. Equally interesting was Biden’s address in which he clearly showed that he knew well where the nation was coming from and saw the need to have a peaceful United States of America.

The inauguration of Joe Biden and his Vice, Kamala Harris, was historic in certain respects: Biden is the oldest American to emerge as President at 78; Kamala Harris is the first black female of Asian descent to become the Vice President of the US, and the inauguration being conducted in a restrictive environment without the usual 250,000 invitees.

Messages from world leaders to the new president, reflected warm felicitations, and at the same time, expressed the expectations and hope that they looked forward to in relationship with the US.

In general, the occasion was a big relief to many Americans and indeed, a lot of people from other nations who described the event as “the end of an error, and the beginning of a new era.” Recall that upon the election of the immediate past President Donald Trump in 2016, he conducted the affairs of government in a tumultuous way for four years that bewildered not only Americans but also the whole world. In the process, many believed that the American goodwill was destroyed by Trump. Americans saw him as one that denigrated the essential substance of the US in terms of its standing in the world, its relationship with allies and also its position as a leading power that emerged supreme at the end of the cold war. Americans who were used to normalcy in governance woke up to a situation where they were governed in many instances, through twitter and other social media platforms.

The new era at the White House shows that history has corrected itself, and it becomes a lesson to generations to come. One of the lessons to draw from the inauguration episode is that democratic institutions should remain committed to the tenets of democratic principles in order to deliver on their promises and keep the system going.

Because of strong institutions, Americans were able to avert a coup d’état on American democracy that happened on the Capitol. The will of the American people prevailed because their institutions showed resilience in the face of autocracy, dictatorship and fraudulent attempt to subvert their will. Compared with the African situation, it is worthy to note that out of the 54 countries, only 14 countries have not had coups d’état in Africa. Records show that from about 1956 to around 1990, Africa had over 111 coups d’état. What Africa needs to do is to show more commitment in respecting constitutional and legislative provisions that guide the workings of institutions. This way, institutions will become stronger and facilitate orderly and peaceful transfer of power.

The electoral process that led to the emergence of Biden as the president, is yet another lesson. The electoral rules, regulations and the process of conducting election are essentially managed by local method. In other words, the rules are governed by state laws. In the most contested areas, it was Trump that had issues with state officials which his political party equally controlled. Yet those who conducted the election in those states were true to their oath of office; they were not persuaded by partisanship to frustrate the will of the people.

The judiciary in the US remained resolute in discharging their duties. There were no delays in disposing all sorts of cases, over 60 of them, including an appeal to the Supreme Court.

The major task before the new administration is fulfilling its campaign promises as the world awaits policies that will open a better and new chapter in their relationship with other countries. There is a lot to hope for as there is no threat of war; no irrational action against any country or people; no executive orders banning groups or people going into the US, or unilateral sanctions against countries for no apparent reason

As a father figure, Biden in his address, demonstrated his plans to rebuild alliances beyond the US, which were greeted with enthusiasm around the world. He equally gave indications to improve US-Africa relations of which Nigeria is potentially a beneficiary. This could mark a strong point of cooperation and support for Nigeria as well as other African continent.

There are indications from analysts that the Biden presidency will strengthen and refocus US foreign policy on Africa. This is a message of consensus, unity and accommodation. As part of his commitment to pursue this agenda, he signed a number of executive orders repealing the earlier policies imposed on America by Trump. One of the executive orders that was repealed reversed immigration restrictions with regard to persons from certain major Muslim countries and parts of Africa including Nigeria.  That action will engender a more friendly visa regime as well as more targeted approach to international trade.

However, alliances are built by persuasions and convictions through a sincere and genuine outreach or engagement with the world. As former Chairman of the Foreign Elections Committee in the Senate, Biden knows many world leaders, and the workings of international institutions. It is hoped that he will put this exposure to effective use.

Biden will do well by first uniting his country, and thereafter, reach out to other nations including the North Atlantic Alliance, where a lot of systemic damage was inflicted on their relationship by Trump. There were unilateral impositions of certain payments for the protection of some countries by Trump. For instance, South Korea was expected to pay $5b virtually every year for the presence of US troops in that country.

Fundamentally, Biden will look at the entire global landscape and see what is missing. A few areas that await his attention include the global climate change which he has to re-engage with the UN to meet the mitigation agenda. He could review the relationship with Mexico, as well as look at reviving global arms reduction or arms controlling treaties with countries like Russia. He may consider setting a new negotiation with China in order to de-escalate the growing expenditure in armaments and arms race which is weighing heavily on the defence budgets of many countries. He will possibly look at cooperating with African countries like Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, among others, in terms of curbing terrorism, and restoring the supremacy of human rights as the essential cornerstone of the US policy in Africa and other parts of the world.

In seeking a change of narrative in the US-Africa relations, Africa should recognize that diplomacy is a two-way traffic; it’s a two-way dialogue between the actors who have to establish their priorities. The management of domestic policies can impact on foreign policy focus.  

Biden assumed presidency under very challenging circumstances. America is the epicentre of Covid-19, and it’s battling with racism, extremism and economic challenges. Essentially, domestic priorities will be foremost in the minds of the new administration while at the same time, deploying foreign policy to simply mend fences, restore and recover lost grounds, and perhaps build or shore up confidence with partners and the rest of the world.

Biden promised to spend $1.93trn immediately as stimulus package in the country. It may be because of such spending that US aid to Africa fell from around $146bn in 2014 to about $80bn in 2019. What this means is that Biden may be hampered to boost foreign aid or increase the maintenance of American bases in Africa or other countries. Obviously, the expenditure at home or the massive challenges he will face in terms of addressing the Covid-19 pandemic, and actually vaccinating 100 million Americans in 100 days, as he promised, will occupy much of his time. In other words, the domestic situation which is virtually an emergency issue, may take preponderance over foreign policy considerations.

While this new dawn is applauded, Africa will do well to moderate its expectations because anything might just happen elsewhere in the world or in the US itself that may consume the greater attention of the new president.

Africa had expectations when Barack Obama became president, and we thought that because of his DNA connection with Africa, there would be a lot for Africa but it didn’t work out that way. Our chances may even be narrower now considering the Asia-centric focus of some African countries in terms of trade and accessing loan facilities.

Africa can be an investment hub for America, American companies and businesses if only we play our role very well. It’s important to realize that investors won’t operate in a climate of uncertainties. They want assurances and guarantees which a handful of African countries can provide including Morocco, Egypt, Senegal, Ghana, Rwanda, Botswana, South Africa, Mauritius, Seychelles, Ethiopia, Kenya, among others. These countries are proving to be magnates for foreign investments.

Biden has sent clear signals to Africa and the rest of the world that his administration is open for business. It’s left for Africa, particularly Nigeria, to take advantage of the opportunity by being proactive in engaging the new government. 

Our challenges internally must be ameliorated, corrected and removed before we expect the investor to come. If the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is well packaged and administered correctly, it may remove the impediments that have hindered investments in Africa, and serve as an attraction to the Biden presidency.

Looking at the broad labels of global security and democracy, there are two important things Biden said he would do in terms of reaching out to the rest of the world for which Nigeria and Africa should prepare. First, he said he would convene a summit for democracy. Nigeria should participate with a credible position in terms of outlining its fundamental objectives to consolidate democracy in Africa.

The second conference Biden promised to organise is the global security summit. As a country confronting terrorist actions and internal security, Nigeria should attend the occasion to learn more about international security in accordance with the UN Charter.

Rawlings in the eye of history: By Moses AMADI

 

Ghana’s former President, Jerry John Rawlings, was seen as both a champion of the people as well as controversial, as his personality and style of leadership generated varying degrees of opinion both in Ghana and in the international community.

The son of a Scottish farmer and a Ghanaian mother, Rawlings graduated from the Ghana Air Force in 1969. In his early days as a pilot, he flew around some cities and rural areas in Ghana. Sadly, for the first time in his life, Rawlings discovered that the way to measure the true quality of life of Ghanaians was not the factsheet of government publicists claiming sundry achievements. What he saw was a country immured in poverty on account of government initiatives that merely kept the people in disempowering hardship, so they would continually cling to their benevolent leaders like nursing babies.

While the majority of Ghanaians wallowed in lack, government officials treated themselves so sumptuously that it rankled. Several years of national mismanagement progressively denied the people any measure of national pride and self-sufficiency. It was no longer possible to hide the ugly image of wealth and poverty side by side, nor the hypocrisy that sustains rather than respond to it.

Corrupt leadership brought Ghana into frontal collision with forces of self-regression. Leaders couldn’t build a muster point for true national visions higher and nobler than their immediate range of personal ambitions. Because of the leaders’ inability to inculcate a healthy mix of energy and determination, well-defined goals, and an ethical framework to keep within honest parameters, the nation became a tragic example of the consequences of unchecked ambition. The leadership structure in Ghana was run by “big men” who were resolutely wedded to hierarchies that did not give room for convivial dialogue and interaction.

In addition to these, were a cocktail of evils such as corruption in immeasurable magnitude in high places, poor infrastructure, human rights violations, stunted social development and inept leadership. It’s evident that wealth accumulation process strips the soul of all decency, and that supposition, disqualifies one from any leadership position.

In the hour of need, leaders lead. The then Flight-Lieutenant Jerry Rawlings took steps to correct what he saw as the indiscipline, corruption and mismanagement of the military regime. He criticized the government of the day, and gained the support of the people. As part of what he termed “house-keeping exercise,” he led two coups. He launched a coup attempt in May 1979 which failed, and he was arrested and sentenced to death. But he escaped from death row through the cooperation of junior officers and other ranks, with whose support he was able to overthrew the country’s military leader, Gen. Frederick W.K  Akuffo. He was executed by firing squad along with other former two heads of state, military officers and Supreme Court Justices.

When asked why he carried out the coup, Rawlings’ response further endeared him to the people: “I am not an expert in economics and I am not an expert in law, but I am an expert in working on an empty stomach while wondering when and where the next meal will come from. I know what it feels like going to bed with a headache, for want of food in the stomach.”

On December 31, 1981, Rawlings staged another coup and held sway as the leader of the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (AFRC). The coup paved way for a new government, the Provisional National Defence Council (PNDC). The government ushered in multi-party elections in 1992, when Rawlings was first elected president by impressive margins, and in 1996 when his party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), achieved substantial parliamentary majorities in those two elections.

Rawlings’ political rise was criticized for alleged human rights abuses by his opponents. He tacitly acknowledged this fact in his statement: “I am still aware that we in Ghana do not like bloodshed. I personally do not like it. I mean, I’d rather, let’s say, confiscate a man’s wealth and bring him down to the level to which he’s brought us just to give him a taste of what life has been, what he’s done to us.” On the other hand, what his sympathisers saw in him was a man who was operating from a position of strength by saying things the way they were. For his supporters, his actions were necessary steps to transform the country into a democratic state.

Beyond politics, Rawlings executed progressive reforms that improved the lot of the people and ranked Ghana high on developmental indexes.

Economic crisis in Ghana, characterized by food shortages, led to a spike in inflation rate of about 150 per cent. According to New York Times report, many hotels pleaded with their clients “to bring their own soaps, towels, soft drinks and sometimes even food.” Economic solutions proffered by Ghana’s 6th Head of State, Gen. Ignatius Kutu Acheampong, including “Operation Feed Yourself” and “Operation Keep Right,” recorded massive failure at the national level but managed to achieve limited success among the locals.

As a committed socialist, Rawlings introduced free-market reforms in the midst of spiralling foreign debt, and tried to transform Ghana into a Marxist state but later abandoned the idea.

He devalued the Ghana’s currency and privatised some of Ghana’s important assets including coffee and cocoa plantations, to address challenges of austerity as part of “structural adjustment programme” in line with the policy of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international financial institutions. He advocated for the cancellation of international debts owed by African nations. Rawlings’ reforms eventually brought about economic recovery and economic stability especially by the early 1990s.

Rawlings took actions that portrayed Ghana in good light especially in the comity of nations. He voluntarily left the presidency in 2001, an unusual action by an African leader.

The International Herald Tribune described him as “Africa’s first former military leader to allow the voters to choose his successor in a multiparty election.”

He contributed troops to UN peacekeeping operations, particularly in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Iraq and Lebanon. This made Ghana a major player in UN peacekeeping missions. Within the logic of reciprocity, he was named the African Union (AU) envoy to Somalia in 2010.

Eventually, Ghana, the first African country to become independent from Britain, regained some normalcy. Rawlings, who doubled as the leader that served longest in Ghana, set his country on the road to democratisation. Today, Ghana is one of Africa’s most stable and most consolidated liberal democracies, with many national institutions strengthened and made more independent. Peaceful transfer of power from one government to another, has become the order of the day in Ghana.

With his death at the Korle-Bu University Hospital in Accra at the age of 73, Rawlings is being remembered as one of few African statesmen who never lost touch with reality and the common man. His demise in a hospital in his country meant that he was a man of humble origins and frank dispositions. A man who spoke the language of the masses yet radiated a powerful intellect and scholarly presence, stripped of arrogance. His determination to create a country of his dreams, prompted a number of tributes to his memory. Many African leaders sent in their tributes in honour of Rawlings.

Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari, said:
“The entire African continent will sorely miss the sterling qualities of the great leader.”
Ghana’s President, Nana Akufo-Addo (from the opposition party, announced seven days of national mourning), said: “A great tree has fallen, and Ghana is poorer for this loss.”
Liberian President, George Weah, said: “Ghana, Liberia and Africa will miss a great leader. Liberia remembers his immense contribution to the attainment and sustainment of peace during the dark days of our own history.”

Hate Rawlings or like him, what cannot be denied is that he contributed immensely to the fortunes of Ghana. The working class in Ghana saw him as one of the country’s best leaders. The average citizens of Ghana who witnessed his leadership both as a military leader and civilian president, described him and Kwame Nkrumah as the country’s most effective leaders because “they made people fear the law.”

Rawlings was a committed patriot who served his country at the highest levels with an uncommon sense of patriotism and unwavering dedication. His observation that some Ghanaian politicians had no business being in politics, is a candid admission of the obvious degenerate quality and moral bankruptcy of political leadership, not just in Ghana but in Africa as a whole.

Without any claim to individual genius, Ghanaian and indeed, African leaders, will do well to distill the collective wisdom of Rawlings and other democratic patriots, to enhance better life for the citizens. Devoid of any form of posturing, this in itself, is an invitation to all Ghanaians to reflect on the true purpose of leadership.
Nations, especially when governed by innovative and inspiring leaders, can leapfrog into exemplary status.

Moses, Publisher, Researcher, Biographer, Phonetics Instructor, Managing Consultant, Legacy BookMedia, Lagos